Fantasy novels are a challenging genre. The author must construct a world from scratch that is close enough to the human experience to be plausible. The Lord of the Rings trilogy by J.R.R. Tolkien is one of the best and most popular examples of a highly developed and believable world. Many readers have strong views about what Tolkien’s world should look like, and when the books were converted to movies, there was vigorous disagreement amongst fans about casting individual characters. But one character who received near unanimous acclaim was the casting of Gandalf. And one of Gandalf’s most famous lines, both in the books and in the movies (delivered slightly differently from the books), is “We meet again, at the turn of the tide. A great storm is coming, but the tide has turned.”
The turn of the tide pretty much sums up the story behind the Rhode Island July 2018 bar exam results and the Rhode Island Supreme Court’s decision to adopt the Uniform Bar Exam starting in February 2019. The number of budding lawyers taking and passing the bar has reached historic lows with the July 2018 exam. A few years ago, it was not uncommon for around 100 people (or more) to pass the Rhode Island bar exam each July. This year, only 35 people passed the exam, which is fewer than the 36 attorneys who passed the February 2018 exam — an unheard-of statistic because new attorneys are much more likely to take the exam in July than February. The bar exam pass rate for July (52%) was lower than February 2018 (53%) — yet another rare statistic because the February exam includes more repeat takers who are less likely to pass. If these trends continue unabated, Rhode Island will eventually suffer a lawyer shortage. About the only bright spot with the July 2018 exam is that women made up 60% of July 2018 bar exam passers, which continues a trend from February 2018 of women constituting the majority of passers. Eventually, this should help erase the gender imbalance that exists in private practice and the judiciary.
The likely culprit for the low number of applicants is the availability of the Uniform Bar Exam in many other states but not Rhode Island for the July 2018 exam. The Uniform Bar Exam enables a budding attorney to take a standardized bar exam once and then use the score to apply for bar admission in the many states that have adopted it. Before the Uniform Bar Exam, applicants took state-specific exams in each jurisdiction. The Uniform Bar Exam eliminates the requirement to take multiple tests and makes it much easier to quickly gain admittance in multiple states. This makes the attorney more attractive to employers and opens up more job opportunities. For the July 2018 exam, recent law school graduates voted with their feet and took Uniform Bar Exam in other states, instead of taking the Rhode Island-specific test.
Rhode Island has decided to adopt the Uniform Bar Exam, but not until the February 2019 bar exam. Starting in February 2019, Rhode Island will also retroactively accept Uniform Bar Exam scores issued within a two-year look-back period for admission. If an applicant has a Uniform Bar Exam score from the February 2017 bar exam, the applicant can use it to apply for bar admission in Rhode Island beginning in February 2019.
Rhode Island’s decision to adopt the Uniform Bar Exam will likely reverse the low bar admission numbers. Just how much is anyone’s guess. When the Rhode Island Supreme Court adopted the Uniform Bar Exam, two Justices of the Court took the highly unusual step of dissenting from part of the order. The Justices dissented out of “concern[] about the number of applicants who will become immediately eligible for transfer on February 28, 2019 because of the two-year look-back period.” Will little Rhody go from too few new attorneys to too many? Maybe, but the number of attorneys practicing regularly in the Ocean State will probably remain stable. The overall population of Rhode Island has hovered around 1 million for decades.
“You shall not pass!” is another famous Gandalf line in Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings fantasy world. He might as well have been talking about the quandary facing new lawyers when deciding whether to take the July 2018 bar exam in Rhode Island or another state. Going forward, the tide has turned with the adoption of the Uniform Bar Exam in Rhode Island.